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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd